I
wasn’t expecting to see on the VN-forum my 9-8 ‘victory’ over Einstein
in the IoP Statistical-Quotations league-table. But now that JM has
leaked the secret, I expect my views on VN and Probability to be taken
more seriously! 112.5% more seriously, in fact.
I wouldn’t expect much respect if I made dogmatic assertions about,
say, Mongolian Prosody, while admitting total ignorance of the
Mongolian language. I might insist I have unrivalled mastery in English
and Portuguese Prosody, which is better than no Prosody at all — yet I
am well-advised to abstain from forming firm opinions on Mongolian
Prosody, pending some immersion in that language.
When you reach respectable fluency, you are welcomed into the group of
specialist Mongolian Prosodists, only to find deep and bitter schisms
between the experts! But at least you understand the differences, and
can join the squabbles.
There’s a loose but helpful analogy with Probabilty and holding
opinions on Coincidences! The essential language is Mathematics (cf
Mongolian). The subdomain is Statistics (cf Prosody). That field finds
fundamental schisms, as a glance at the IoP Statistically Speaking
anthology will reveal. There are Bayesians that argue with both
Bayesians and non-Bayesians (at the highest ‘Nobel’ level).
JM: None of this detracts from my love of VN’s fictional dabbling with
coincidences. Or your non-fictional examples!
Main difference between us is the number and volume of WOWS!
Ironically, Nature is FULL of much LOWER (prior) PROBABILITY events
than that damned red-balloon, your family’s gypsy-encounter, or hearing
things on the radio that relate to books in your handbag.
IMPOSSIBLE events have ZERO probabilty. BUT ZERO probabilty events DO
HAPPEN. See me after Class!
Visual Perception is now considered not as a simple
light-falling-on-a-photographic-film but as a hugely complex computation
of
diverse signals using models created by specialized brain modules* Your
new-found ability to see the cat illustrates the evolutionary advantage
of a brain capable of rapid learning.
* See e.g., Iain Stewart’s readable The Mathematics of Life.
Stan Kelly-Bootle, MAA, AMS
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PS [appended by ED from another SKB msg:]
And Saltykov is ever-so close to Salty Cod.
SKB